On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation) do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation

Mass Spectrometry-based Methods for Phosphorylation Site Mapping of Hyperphosphorylated Proteins Applied to Net1, a Regulator of Exit from Mitosis in Yeast

Prior to anaphase in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Cdc14 protein phosphatase is sequestered within the nucleolus and inhibited by Net1, a component of the RENT complex in budding yeast. During anaphase the RENT complex disassembles, allowing Cdc14 to migrate to the nucleus and cytoplasm where it catalyzes exit from mitosis. The mechanism of Cdc14 release appears to involve the polo-like kinase Cdc5, which is capable of promoting the dissociation of a recombinant Net1·Cdc14 complex in vitro by phosphorylation of Net1. We report here the phosphorylation site mapping of recombinant Net1 (Net1N) and a mutant Net1N allele (Net1N-19m) with 19 serines or threonines mutated to alanine. A variety of chromatographic and mass spectrometric-based strategies were used, including immobilized metal-affinity chromatography, alkaline phosphatase treatment, matrix-assisted laser-desorption post-source decay, and a multidimensional electrospray mass spectrometry-based approach. No one approach was able to identify all phosphopeptides in the tryptic digests of these proteins. Most notably, the presence of a basic residue near the phosphorylated residue significantly hampered the ability of alkaline phosphatase to hydrolyze the phosphate moiety. A major goal of research in proteomics is to identify all proteins and their interactions and post-translational modification states. The failure of any single method to identify all sites in highly phosphorylated Net1N, however, raises significant concerns about how feasible it is to map phosphorylation sites throughout the proteome using existing technologies

Women's entrepreneurship and intimate partner violence: A cluster randomized trial of microenterprise assistance and partner participation in post-conflict Uganda (SSM-D-14-01580R1)

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Intimate partner violence is widespread and represents an obstacle to human freedom and a significant public health concern. Poverty alleviation programs and efforts to economically “empower” women have become popular policy options, but theory and empirical evidence are mixed on the relationship between women's empowerment and the experience of violence. We study the effects of a successful poverty alleviation program on women's empowerment and intimate partner relations and violence from 2009 to 2011. In the first experiment, a cluster-randomized superiority trial, 15 marginalized people (86% women) were identified in each of 120 villages (n = 1800) in Gulu and Kitgum districts in Uganda. Half of villages were randomly assigned via public lottery to immediate treatment: five days of business training, $150, and supervision and advising. We examine intent-to-treat estimates of program impact and heterogeneity in treatment effects by initial quality of partner relations. 16 months after the initial grants, the program doubled business ownership and incomes (p < 0.01); we show that the effect on monthly income, however, is moderated by initial quality of intimate partner relations. We also find small increases in marital control (p < 0.05), self-reported autonomy (p < 0.10), and quality of partner relations (p < 0.01), but essentially no change in intimate partner violence. In a second experiment, we study the impact of a low-cost attempt to include household partners (often husbands) in the process. Participants from the 60 waitlist villages (n = 904) were randomly assigned to participate in the program as individuals or with a household partner. We observe small, non-significant decreases in abuse and marital control and large increases in the quality of relationships (p < 0.05), but no effects on women's attitudes toward gender norms and a non-significant reduction in autonomy. Involving men and changing framing to promote more inclusive programming can improve relationships, but may not change gender attitudes or increase business success. Increasing women's earnings has no effect on intimate partner violence.A Vanguard Charitable Trust and the LOGiCA Trust Fund at the World Bank funded data collection and analysis. This article is the result of independent research and does not necessarily represent the views of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau or the United States

Surface electrical properties experiment, part 1

The work is reported which was performed on the Surface Electrical Properties Experiment Data Acquisition System. Areas discussed include: data handling and processing, installation and external signal application, operation of the equipment, and digital output. Detailed circuit descriptions are included

The Influence of Binary Stars on Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy Kinematics

We have completed a Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate the effect of binary star orbits on the measured velocity dispersion in dwarf spheroidal galaxies. This paper analyses previous attempts at this calculation, and explains the simulations which were performed with mass, period and ellipticity distributions similar to that measured for the solar neighbourhood. The conclusion is that with functions such as these, the contribution of binary stars to the velocity dispersion is small. The distributions are consistent with the percentage of binaries detected by observations, although this is quite dependent on the measuring errors and on the number of years over which measurements have been taken. For binaries to be making a significant contribution to the dispersion measured in dSph galaxies, the distributions of the orbital parameters would need to be very different from those of stars in the solar neighbourhood. In particular more smaller period orbits with higher mass secondaries would be required. The shape of the velocity distribution may help to resolve this issue when more data becomes available. In general, the scenarios producing a larger apparent dispersion have a velocity distribution which deviates more clearly from Gaussian.Comment: MNRAS in press, uuencoded ps fil

Linking glacial and future climates through an ensemble of GCM simulations

International audienceIn this paper we explore the relationships between the modelled climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and that for doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide compared to the pre-industrial climate by analysing the output from an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 GCM. Our results lend support to the idea in other recent work that the Antarctic is a useful place to look for historical data which can be used to validate models used for climate forecasting of future greenhouse gas induced climate changes, at local, regional and global scales. Good results may also be obtainable using tropical temperatures, particularly those over the ocean. While the greater area in the tropics makes them an attractive area for seeking data, polar amplification of temperature changes may mean that the Anatarctic provides a clearer signal relative to the uncertainties in data and model results. Our result for Greenland is not so strong, possibly due to difficulties in accurately modelling the sea ice extent. The MIROC3.2 model shows an asymmetry in climate sensitivity calculated by decreasing rather than increasing the greenhouse gases, with 80% of the ensemble having a weaker cooling than warming. This asymmetry, if confirmed by other studies would mean that direct estimates of climate sensitivity from the LGM are likely to be underestimated by the order of half a degree. Our suspicion is, however, that this result may be highly model dependent. Analysis of the parameters varied in the model suggest the asymmetrical response may be linked to the ice in the clouds, which is therefore indicated as an important area for future research

The returns to microenterprise support among the ultrapoor: A field experiment in postwar Uganda

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Economic Association via the DOI in this record.We show that extremely poor, war-affected women in northern Uganda have high returns to a package of $150 cash, five days of business skills training, and ongoing supervision. Sixteen months after grants, participants doubled their microenterprise ownership and incomes, mainly from petty trading. We also show these ultrapoor have too little social capital, but that group bonds, informal insurance, and cooperative activities could be induced and had positive returns. When the control group received cash and training 20 months later, we varied supervision, which represented half of the program costs. A year later, supervision increased business survival but not consumption. (JEL I38, J16, J23, J24, L26, O15, Z13